Good information, thanks. It always irritates me when someone doesn't specify whether numbers are real (inflation adjusted) or nominal. The EIA source you link to is an example.
Your customary informative piece, thank you. I have some questions:
“Because wind and solar must be able to meet peak electricity demand, there must be significant overbuilding of wind and solar resources that most of the time stand idle.”
Are you aware of any peer-reviewed studies attempting to quantify “significant overbuilding?” It is a popular notion, and I’ve tried to develop at least a Fermi-level estimate. Best I can determine is a factor of 4, which I calculated based on EIA-published capacity factor data and presumed battery efficiency data. Is that in the ballpark?
"Despite new capacity additions, U.S. wind generation decreased by 2.1% in 2023, and the EIA noted then that “the 2023 decline in wind generation indicates that wind as a generation source is maturing after decades of rapid growth.”
Climate catastrophists are quick to point to events like Helene and Milton and scream, “we told you; climate change is making things worse.” My question is, is it possible that the decline in wind production is due in part to decline in productive winds, or at least winds where there is equipment to convert it? In other words, is climate change making the Malthusian’s Cocktail of Unicorn Farts and Fairy Dust even less reliable?
My final question is more complicated: you speak of low-prices for combined-cycle gas turbines. How volatile have those prices been in the past? What externalities impact those prices? For example, is the restricted availability of gas from Russia causing a decrease in construction prices? Can utilities expect these prices to hold for a year or two, such that they can compile sufficient information to contract for future delivery?
Thank you again for your efforts and these postings.
3. I would have to do more looking on this! It's my impression from EIA data that this is a large decrease in costs compared with previous years. This is where I'm planning to investigate: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/
Generation assets of whatever type must meet grid demand on peak. Typical practice is to maintain capacity equal to peak demand plus ~20% to allow for unscheduled generation equipment outages. However, the average load factor on the US grid is about 45%, or about 50% greater than the average capacity factor of wind and solar intermittent renewables. However, the capacity factors of wind and solar generation drop well below average seasonally. Solar particularly drops by about 50% during winter, which would become a major issue as utility demand peaks shift from summer to winter with "all-electric everything".
Good information, thanks. It always irritates me when someone doesn't specify whether numbers are real (inflation adjusted) or nominal. The EIA source you link to is an example.
Agreed! My guess is that EIA specifies their general approach elsewhere on the website but it is frustrating it's not in the post itself!
The cost of a regulation forced service always goes up because it circumvents free enterprise.
So true!
Right on, Sarah.
Your customary informative piece, thank you. I have some questions:
“Because wind and solar must be able to meet peak electricity demand, there must be significant overbuilding of wind and solar resources that most of the time stand idle.”
Are you aware of any peer-reviewed studies attempting to quantify “significant overbuilding?” It is a popular notion, and I’ve tried to develop at least a Fermi-level estimate. Best I can determine is a factor of 4, which I calculated based on EIA-published capacity factor data and presumed battery efficiency data. Is that in the ballpark?
"Despite new capacity additions, U.S. wind generation decreased by 2.1% in 2023, and the EIA noted then that “the 2023 decline in wind generation indicates that wind as a generation source is maturing after decades of rapid growth.”
Climate catastrophists are quick to point to events like Helene and Milton and scream, “we told you; climate change is making things worse.” My question is, is it possible that the decline in wind production is due in part to decline in productive winds, or at least winds where there is equipment to convert it? In other words, is climate change making the Malthusian’s Cocktail of Unicorn Farts and Fairy Dust even less reliable?
My final question is more complicated: you speak of low-prices for combined-cycle gas turbines. How volatile have those prices been in the past? What externalities impact those prices? For example, is the restricted availability of gas from Russia causing a decrease in construction prices? Can utilities expect these prices to hold for a year or two, such that they can compile sufficient information to contract for future delivery?
Thank you again for your efforts and these postings.
Hi Barry,
Pleasure as always to think about the questions you pose!
1. For peer-reviewed, I'm unsure. But Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling of Energy Bad Boys did reports at American Experiment that showed overbuilding a nearly 6.5 times increase in the size of Colorado's electric grid in terms of generation capacity under net-zero by 2040. It's 7.3x in Minnesota. So you're in the ballpark for sure, but still might be too low! (Sources here: https://files.americanexperiment.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Colorados-Energy-Future-Part-1.pdf?v=1697050464 and https://files.americanexperiment.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/The-High-Cost-of-100-Percent-Carbon-Free-Electricity-by-2040-in-Minnesota.pdf)
2. On productive winds: wind speeds slowed for that particular year. Here is a blog my colleague at IWF wrote about that EIA blog: https://www.iwf.org/2024/05/02/eia-wind-generation-decrease-due-to-slower-wind-speeds/
3. I would have to do more looking on this! It's my impression from EIA data that this is a large decrease in costs compared with previous years. This is where I'm planning to investigate: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/
Barry,
Generation assets of whatever type must meet grid demand on peak. Typical practice is to maintain capacity equal to peak demand plus ~20% to allow for unscheduled generation equipment outages. However, the average load factor on the US grid is about 45%, or about 50% greater than the average capacity factor of wind and solar intermittent renewables. However, the capacity factors of wind and solar generation drop well below average seasonally. Solar particularly drops by about 50% during winter, which would become a major issue as utility demand peaks shift from summer to winter with "all-electric everything".
While the need to overbuild renewable generating capacity is an issue, storage is an even greater issue because it is absolutely necessary and far more expensive than incremental generation. There are two peer reviewed studies of the storage requirements for a primarily renewable grid: (https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/236723/1/Ruhnau-and-Qvist-2021-Storage-requirements-in-a-100-renewable-electricity-system-EconStor.pdf) and (https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1076830/full)
The US already has a major storage deficit: (https://www.therightinsight.org/Current-Storage-Deficit) which would continue to grow as renewable generating capacity increased.